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/ Global 20 March 2026 19 minutes

On Our Radar scans conflicts and crises around the globe every week and features some of the hotspots Crisis Group’s analysts are closely watching. Whether an under-reported trend or a headline-grabbing development, our field experts explain why it matters or what should be done. 

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20 March 2026 CHAD-SUDAN  A drone attack Wednesday killed seventeen people in Chad’s border town of Tine, including mourners gathered for a funeral and children playing nearby. The Chadian government accused the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan of launching the drone. In late February, the RSF had hit Chadian army positions in Tine, killing several Chadian soldiers. President Mahamat Déby ordered a total closure of the border with Sudan, which could have negative humanitarian consequences. The border has officially been closed since April 2023, but until now authorities have been allowing some refugees and aid shipments through. He also warned that Chad would retaliate for any further strikes on its territory, no matter who is responsible. Crisis Group expert Enrica Pico says Chad, which hosts around one million Sudanese refugees, increasingly risks getting drawn into the war in Sudan as fighting routinely spills across the border. IRAN  Oil and gas prices soared and stock markets dived Thursday after Iran struck Qatar’s main natural gas facility, Ras Laffan. The Iranian attack came a day after Israel hit Iran’s South Pars gas field, one of the world’s largest. Crisis Group expert Naysan Rafati says these tit-for-tat attacks on hydrocarbon infrastructure signal a new phase in the conflict, now entering its fourth week, as a global energy crisis looms and Gulf Arab states are increasingly caught in the crossfire, with Saudi Arabia warning of military action against Iran as these states’ patience wears thin. NIGERIA  Multiple suicide bombings Monday killed at least 26 people and injured over a hundred in Maiduguri, capital of Nigeria’s Borno state. The attacks mark the second deadliest incident in Maiduguri in the past five years. No group has yet claimed responsibility. The bombings come amid a surge of violence in the country’s north east, with both Boko Haram and the Islamic State-West Africa Province, an ISIS affiliate, launching lethal raids. Crisis Group expert Nnamdi Obasi says the latest attacks indicate that these insurgencies may again be gaining momentum. The Nigerian government and its foreign partners should step up efforts to counter the new challenge and halt rising insecurity in other parts of the country. 13 March 2026 DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO  Drone strikes killed several people Tuesday night in Goma, capital of North Kivu province in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, including a French woman working with UNICEF and at least two other residents. The M23 rebels who hold the city blamed the Congolese government for the attacks. Kinshasa said an investigation is under way. Despite a formal ceasefire in their conflict, both the Congolese government and the M23 (backed by Rwandan troops) have been acquiring drones as a means of getting around enemy defences. Tuesday’s attacks, along with another in February that killed M23 spokesperson Willy Ngoma, mark a dramatic escalation in the conflict’s aerial warfare. Crisis Group expert Richard Moncrieff says Kinshasa, which has purchased Chinese and Turkish drones, is determined to use its new arsenal to show the rebels they are not safe in their bastions. But with civilian casualties mounting, the government’s growing reliance on drones could backfire by costing it international support. Having flexed its muscles, Kinshasa would be well advised to return to the diplomatic arena, pressing for Rwandan withdrawal from the country and returning to negotiations with the M23 with a stronger hand. IRAN  Amid a widening Middle East conflict sparked by U.S.-Israeli strikes that began two weeks ago, the Islamic Republic effected only the second transition in its most senior post since the 1979 revolution that brought it to power. Mojtaba Khamenei has taken up the position of Supreme Leader, which his father Ali held from 1989 until his death on 28 February in the war’s opening salvo. The U.S.-Israeli campaign has continued unabated, doing significant damage. Iran has responded with drone and missile strikes in the Gulf and brought traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to a crawl. The first official statement attributed to the younger Khamenei was defiant in tone, says Crisis Group expert Ali Vaez, highlighting the Iranian regime's desire to project continuity under duress, vis-à-vis both its foreign adversaries and its domestic opponents. But that ambition could be short-lived if Khamenei is targeted amid the hostilities or outmanoeuvred by other players in the regime's upper echelons. Many Iranians, meanwhile, are despairing at a leadership transition that so far promises more of the same. LEBANON  Israel’s latest military escalation in Lebanon continued to wreak havoc this week. Since 2 March, when Hizbollah fired rockets toward Israeli territory for the first time in over a year, Israel has ramped up aerial bombardment, including of the capital Beirut, and forced hundreds of thousands to flee their homes. It has also sent more troops into southern Lebanon, with a view to establishing what it calls a “security zone” there. While Israel retains military superiority over Hizbollah, the Shiite party-cum-militia has put up a fight. On Wednesday, it launched a barrage of 100 rockets across the border, which triggered an especially brutal sequence of Israeli air raids. Crisis Group expert David Wood says neither of the belligerents appears ready to stop, even as Lebanese leaders scramble to find a diplomatic off-ramp. Already, the Lebanese public has paid a horrific price: the death toll has climbed to almost 700, and thousands more have seen their homes and communities destroyed. 6 March 2026 IRAN  The U.S. and Israel launched massive airstrikes on Iran Saturday, hitting military installations and killing senior leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In retaliation, Iran fired missiles and drones at Israel, as well as U.S. bases and commercial infrastructure in Gulf states. The conflict's reverberations have quickly spread from the Indian Ocean to the eastern Mediterranean. Crisis Group expert Ali Vaez says Tehran looks prepared for a drawn-out confrontation, betting that it can steadily raise the psychological and economic costs to its adversaries, while maintaining cohesion at the top of the political system despite Khamenei’s demise. The U.S.-Israeli campaign appears open-ended, with no clear objective yet defined. Airstrikes can substantially degrade Iran's military capabilities but are unlikely to dislodge the regime, and even if they did, state collapse in Iran would risk unleashing far wider regional disorder. AFGHANISTAN-PAKISTAN  Border clashes continued this week after Pakistan declared “open war” with Afghanistan last Friday. The declaration followed Taliban retaliatory cross-border attacks after Pakistani airstrikes on purported Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) targets in Afghanistan on 21 February. Pakistan then carried out another series of strikes on 27 February, including in Kabul. Islamabad accuses Taliban authorities of sheltering the TTP, which has stepped up attacks in Pakistan. Kabul denies it. According to the UN, the latest fighting has killed dozens of civilians in Afghanistan and displaced tens of thousands, with reports also indicating civilian casualties in Pakistan. Crisis Group expert Ibraheem Bahiss says a drawn-out conflict serves neither side's interests. Outside actors should press Islamabad and Kabul to de-escalate.  ECUADOR  The U.S. Southern Command said Tuesday Ecuadorian and U.S. forces had begun operations to curb organised crime in Ecuador. They first went after the Colombian armed group Comandos de la Frontera, which is active along the Colombian border. Ecuador’s military says the operations will continue indefinitely. While details are classified, news reports indicate that the U.S. played an advisory role, without putting troops on the ground. Crisis Group expert Glaeldys González Calanche says such cooperation is not new, but the latest announcement signals deeper U.S. involvement. Security ties have deepened as President Daniel Noboa aligns with the Trump administration’s preference for using military force to combat drug trafficking. 27 February 2026 CHAD-SUDAN  Chadian authorities Monday announced the immediate closure of the country’s border with Sudan. The decision followed what N’Djamena described as “repeated incursions” linked to Sudan’s war, after clashes around the Sudanese border town of Tina involving the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces and militias aligned with Sudan’s army. Chad said the border would remain closed until further notice, while allowing humanitarian exemptions, including for refugees and returnees, as well as approved aid deliveries. Crisis Group expert Charles Bouëssel says N’Djamena should maintain vital cross-border aid and preserve trade that sustains displaced populations. It should also ensure that security and disarmament operations in the east are conducted with restraint and impartiality to contain intercommunal tensions and prevent Chad from being drawn further into Sudan’s war. CUBA  Cuban authorities Wednesday accused ten people on a U.S.-registered speedboat carrying weapons and tactical gear of attempting infiltration of Cuban territory with “terrorist intentions”. Border guards shot four people dead and wounded six others aboard the boat after its occupants allegedly opened fire. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio denied any U.S. involvement and said Washington would investigate the facts independently. Crisis Group expert Renata Segura says the incident comes amid already high tensions between Havana and Washington, after the U.S. halted fuel imports coming into Cuba, exacerbating a severe energy crisis on the island, in hopes of pushing the Cuban authorities to negotiate an economic and political opening.  SYRIA  ISIS released an audio statement last weekend denouncing Syria’s interim government and calling for a renewed campaign against its forces. The jihadist group has since claimed responsibility for several attacks on Syrian army personnel in the northern and north-eastern parts of the country. These developments follow last month’s reported mass escape from the al-Hol camp, which held over 20,000 detainees, many of them relatives of suspected ISIS fighters. Some of these people got away as security broke down during an offensive led by Damascus on the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Crisis Group expert Nanar Hawach says the closure of the camp compounds an already risky convergence. With the SDF sidelined, U.S. forces withdrawing from Syria and the new government’s security apparatus still finding its feet, ISIS seems to be seeking an opening to resume its insurgency. 20 February 2026 MATERNAL MORTALITY  The World Health Organization released a study Tuesday showing that nearly two thirds of maternal deaths worldwide occur in countries wracked by conflict or instability. Crisis raises the risks associated with pregnancy, the report finds, though health services in conflict-affected places are generally already scarce. Some countries, such as Colombia and Ethiopia, have made progress in reducing maternal mortality through partnerships with NGOs with expertise in service provision in remote areas. But now aid cuts have put such programs in jeopardy, says Crisis Group expert Cristal Downing, even as women are dying in childbirth at alarming rates. Donor funds still available should be directed toward bolstering community-based health services, particularly in war zones, through such cost-effective means as midwifery. NIGERIA  The Nigerian government announced Tuesday that the U.S. will dispatch 100 additional military personnel to assist in fighting jihadist groups in the northern part of the country. This deployment comes amid deadly attacks that killed 56 people in Niger state last weekend and 34 others in Kebbi state on Wednesday. These raids are part of a broader surge of violence that has claimed over 250 lives across north-central and north-western Nigeria in the past month. Hundreds more people have been abducted. Crisis Group expert Nnamdi Obasi says jihadists and other armed groups are growing stronger in these regions and elsewhere, by exploiting gaps in rural and border security as government forces become increasingly overstretched. The U.S. aid notwithstanding, the government needs to urgently improve its response, including by expediting measures outlined under the “nationwide security emergency” President Bola Tinubu declared last November. U.S.-IRAN  Iranian and U.S. delegations convened in Geneva Tuesday for talks about Tehran’s nuclear program, the second round of such negotiations this month. In parallel, the Islamic Republic’s foreign minister met with the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency for technical discussions. Both Iran and the U.S. noted a measure of progress, as did the Omani mediators, even as Washington continues to ramp up its deployment of military assets to the Middle East. But the gaps between the sides are still wide, says Crisis Group expert Ali Vaez, even as regards what a possible agreement would cover. The negotiators have yet to wrestle with matters of substance. Tehran and Washington are aware of the high risks of failure, as well as the costs that fresh hostilities would bring. Yet the pace of diplomacy is lagging as momentum builds for confrontation.  13 February 2026 BANGLADESH  The Bangladesh Nationalist Party won a landslide victory Thursday in the country’s first national elections since the 2024 ouster of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, whose Awami League was barred from contesting the vote. A concurrent referendum on the July Charter – a set of reforms negotiated by all the participating parties over the last year – passed by a wide margin. Crisis Group expert Thomas Kean says the turnout and referendum result reflect the credibility of both the election and the reform process in the eyes of most Bangladeshis. The incoming government will face daunting challenges, however, such as getting Bangladesh’s ailing economy back on track and improving security. ERITREA-ETHIOPIA  Addis Ababa accused Eritrea of deploying its troops into Ethiopian territory Saturday to conduct joint manoeuvres with Ethiopian rebels along the border. In response, Asmara said Ethiopia had fabricated evidence for this charge, asserting that it has “no appetite for or desire to engage in meaningless acrimony”. Crisis Group expert Magnus Taylor says this latest confrontation comes shortly after renewed clashes between Ethiopia and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front’s armed wing, which Addis Ababa alleges has formed a secret pact with Eritrea. More fighting could be in the offing if efforts to de-escalate tensions fail. WEST BANK  Israel’s security cabinet Sunday approved measures that further cement Israeli control of the occupied West Bank, with the explicit goal of pre-empting the establishment of a viable Palestinian state. The move reflects an Israeli plan not only to annex all the Israeli settlements in the rural West Bank, but also to further limit what is left of nominal Palestinian autonomy and displace Palestinians from more built-up areas. Absent action that conditions trade and aid to Israel on policy changes, says Crisis Group expert Mairav Zonszein, international support for a two-state solution increasingly rings hollow. The annexation drive also undermines the Trump administration’s twenty-point plan for Gaza. 6 February 2026 GAZA  Israel carried out strikes across the Gaza Strip Wednesday, killing at least 24 Palestinians. The Israeli army claimed it was targeting a Hamas commander and responding to fire upon its troops, but civilians accounted for most of the casualties. The death toll among Palestinians in Gaza since the October 2025 ceasefire has now topped 550. Humanitarian needs also remain acute amid aid shortfalls; the Rafah crossing with Egypt has opened, after a long wait, but deliveries are still tightly restricted. Crisis Group expert Mairav Zonszein says the latest violence underscores how tenuous the ceasefire remains despite formally entering its second phase, when the sides are supposed to begin addressing issues of long-term security, governance and reconstruction. Diplomats need to press Israel to release its chokehold on Gaza and push for continued progress on the truce’s terms. PAKISTAN  Police backed by soldiers reportedly killed more than 200 Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) fighters in raids throughout Balochistan, a south-western province next to Afghanistan, over the course of this week. The operations followed a rash of BLA attacks on police stations, military installations and residential areas that claimed 50 lives (33 civilians and 17 state personnel) over the weekend. Islamabad accuses the Afghan Taliban of harbouring the BLA high command, which they also say gets financial and logistical assistance from Pakistan’s arch-rival India. Crisis Group Executive Vice President Richard Atwood says the high death toll among the Baloch separatist insurgents shows that authorities planned the raids carefully, with a view to keeping civilians out of the crossfire. But these events are bound to increase tensions between Islamabad and Kabul, which are already high following clashes between Pakistani and Afghan Taliban forces last October, and to further chill relations between Islamabad and New Delhi. U.S.-COLOMBIA  Presidents Donald Trump and Gustavo Petro met at the White House Tuesday after months of heated rhetoric prompted by disputes over issues such as migration, counter-narcotics cooperation and the 3 January U.S. raid grabbing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Amid these exchanges, Trump went so far as to suggest that Colombia, too, might be a target of U.S. military action. Crisis Group expert Glaeldys González Calanche says the meeting proved constructive, helping ease the tensions in the bilateral relationship and signalling that the two countries can continue working together to curb drug trafficking. The two presidents also discussed the tariff spat between Colombia and Ecuador, with Trump offering to mediate between these countries’ leaders. Resolving the immediate trade crisis could pave the way for stronger collaboration between Bogotá and Quito in fighting organised crime. 30 January 2026 COLOMBIA-ECUADOR  The foreign ministers of Colombia and Ecuador met in Panama after a week in which a trade dispute escalated between the two countries. The standoff began last week, when Ecuador announced a 30 per cent tariff on Colombian imports, blaming Bogotá for insufficient action to stop drug trafficking along the shared border. Colombia retaliated with tariffs on Ecuadorian goods and a suspension of electricity exports. Ecuador then raised the fee for Colombian oil shipped through its pipelines tenfold from about $3 to $30 per barrel. Crisis Group expert Glaeldys González Calanche says the meeting indicates that the two capitals understand the dispute will hurt both economies as well as weaken both states’ ability to confront security challenges on the frontier. Rather than acting in isolation, the two should mount a coordinated cross-border response, which is likely to be more effective in fighting transnational criminal networks. IRAN  U.S. President Donald Trump told Iran Wednesday that it risks "major destruction" if it fails to negotiate a nuclear deal with Washington. The ultimatum follows earlier warnings of U.S. intervention over the Islamic Republic's repression of protests. The U.S. has dispatched additional naval assets, airpower and defensive systems to the Middle East. Tehran – along with some of its non-state allies in the region – has threatened retaliation if attacked. Crisis Group expert Ali Vaez says Iran is unlikely to meet the White House's sweeping demands, which encompass nuclear, missile and regional concessions, raising the likelihood of confrontation at a time when the Islamic Republic already faces increasing diplomatic isolation, mounting economic problems and outrage at its brutal crackdown on dissent. SOUTH SUDAN  The South Sudanese army announced Sunday it is launching a major offensive to recapture territory in Jonglei state that has been seized by opposition forces and allied militias since hostilities intensified in December. The UN warned this week that mass troop mobilisation and inflammatory rhetoric from senior commanders have significantly heightened the risk of violence against civilians. Crisis Group expert Daniel Akech says the escalation signals a clear slide toward full-scale war. The rapidly expanding conflict threatens to draw in neighbouring states, including Uganda, and to deepen South Sudan’s dangerous entanglement in the war in Sudan. 23 January 2026 DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO  M23 rebels withdrew from Uvira, near the Burundian border, over last weekend, ending a tense month in which they controlled the South Kivu town. They had promised to pull out, likely due to U.S. pressure following a December summit in Washington between their main outside backer, the Rwandan president, and his Congolese counterpart. The Congolese army and allied Wazalendo militias re-entered Uvira this week, but in the interim chaos engulfed the town, with widespread looting and abuses against civilians, mainly by the Wazalendo. Of particular concern, says Crisis Group expert Richard Moncrieff, is the mounting ethnic tension in the area. The M23 insurgents, who portray themselves as defenders of the Tutsi people, took Uvira claiming that the Tutsi-related Banyamulenge living in town needed their protection. Primary responsibility for attacks on Banyamulenge residents lies with the Congolese authorities and their allies, but the rebels appear to have exposed these people to predictable retaliation after retreating. Another M23-aligned armed group, the Twiraneho, is involved in fighting around Uvira, also pointing to a pattern of inter-communal violence.  GUATEMALA  President Bernardo Arévalo declared a 30-day state of emergency Monday after inmates had taken more than 45 guards hostage at three prisons two days earlier. After the authorities regained control of one of the facilities, gang members outside jail killed ten policemen in retaliation. The state of emergency limits citizens' rights and gives state forces special powers such as making arrests without cause. It echoes the iron-fist approaches to public safety pursued by leaders in El Salvador and Ecuador. Crisis Group expert Renata Segura says Arévalo, who won the 2024 election touting a progressive reform agenda but has since lost popularity, listened to demands from Guatemalans for a decisive response to an uptick in violent crime. If the measure delivers immediate results, it could help the president’s political standing. UGANDA  Tensions simmered this week after the 15 January elections, which saw President Yoweri Museveni win another term with 71.65 per cent of the vote. The leading opposition candidate, Robert Kyagulanyi of the National Unity Party (NUP), rejected the result, alleging widespread fraud. He remains in hiding after dodging a police raid – staged for reasons that remain unclear – on his residence. The president's powerful son, army chief Muhoozi Kainerugaba, said on social media Tuesday Kyagulanyi would be treated as an "outlaw/rebel" if he did not surrender within 48 hours. (He later deleted this and other inflammatory posts.) Meanwhile, authorities charged more than 100 NUP members with involvement in election day violence. An internet blackout has made details of the incidents difficult to verify. The official death toll is twelve, but both Kyagulanyi and Muhoozi have cited higher figures. The government says ten died when its forces were attacked at an opposition legislator's home, a version of events sharply contested by others who were present. Crisis Group expert Meron Elias says the opacity of events, along with Muhoozi’s threats, will likely keep the political temperature high following the polarising vote. 16 January 2026 CUBA  The bodies of 32 Cuban soldiers killed during the 3 January U.S. raid in Venezuela arrived in Havana Thursday. Cuba is facing considerable uncertainty after U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday urged its government to “make a deal” or face the consequences, vowing that the U.S. would cut the Venezuelan oil supply to the island nation, which is heavily dependent on these deliveries for its energy needs. Crisis Group expert Renata Segura says Washington appears to be calculating that a deepening economic crisis in Cuba will mobilise the masses to bring about the regime’s collapse. The Cuban regime retains a strong military and solid ties to Russia and China, however, and previously has not hesitated to crush dissent. GREENLAND  Several European NATO members have deployed troops to Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark, to beef up infrastructure and carry out joint military exercises after U.S. President Donald Trump repeatedly stated that the U.S. intends to acquire the island, by force if necessary. Wednesday’s meeting among the U.S., Greenland and Denmark in Washington failed to resolve “fundamental disagreement” on Greenland’s future, according to the Danish foreign minister. With Europe already buffeted by Russia's full-scale war in Ukraine, says Crisis Group expert Olga Oliker, this crisis will have dire implications for the future of NATO and European security writ large if the U.S. does not back down. SYRIA  Thousands demonstrated in the north east Tuesday against government forces’ expulsion of Kurdish fighters from Aleppo. Since the last Kurdish fighters left the city Sunday, fighting shifted eastward, raising the risk of sustained confrontation. In early January, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) clashed with the Syrian army in Aleppo as negotiations to integrate Syria’s north east under central government control stalled. Crisis Group expert Nanar Hawach says Damascus cannot take the whole region militarily, but it will likely keep applying pressure on the SDF. The U.S., which supports both sides, has kept a ceiling on escalation thus far and should use its leverage to bring the parties back to the negotiating table. 9 January 2026 CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC  Provisional results show that President Faustin-Archange Touadéra has secured a third term after general elections on 28 December. Two challengers – Anicet-Georges Dologuélé and Henri-Marie Dondra – have called for annulling the vote, alleging fraud, while the main opposition coalition boycotted the ballot, citing an uneven playing field. The disputed poll coincided with renewed violence in the south east. Fighters linked to the Azandé Ani Kpi Gbé (AAKG) – a Zandé self-defence militia – disrupted voting in Bambouti. Clashes then spread, including AAKG attacks on government forces around Zémio in early January. The AAKG was initially aligned with Bangui but later broke with the government after its rapprochement with a Fulani-led armed group that the militia accuses of encroaching on Zandé land. Crisis Group expert Fulbert Ngodji says the AAKG may be digging in to battle the state. Stability during Touadéra’s new term will hinge on promoting intercommunal dialogue in the south east, better integrating militias under army command, and reducing regional isolation through development and security reform. IRAN  The falling value of Iran's national currency sparked demonstrations that since late December have grown into nationwide anti-regime unrest. The government has altered its subsidy policies but done little to dampen wider grievances. At least three dozen people have been killed as state forces crack down on protests that show little sign of slowing down. Crisis Group expert Ali Vaez says the Islamic Republic faces a major dilemma: it is neither willing nor able to adopt reforms that could meet expectations for political, social and economic change and on notice from U.S. President Donald Trump that outside intervention is possible if its repression intensifies.  LEBANON  Lebanon said it had passed a milestone in disarming Hizbollah, but the country’s fragile ceasefire deal with Israel remains imperilled. On Thursday, the Lebanese army announced that it had brought all weapons under state control in the southern area between the Litani River and the Israeli border. Israel immediately disputed the army’s assertion, saying Hizbollah retains military infrastructure in that region. Crisis Group expert David Wood says Beirut faces dangers ahead in any case. The army must soon move toward disarming Hizbollah north of the Litani, where the group refuses to comply – driving up the risk of internal discord. Yet Lebanese leaders also know that Israel will almost certainly respond to any hold-ups in disarming Hizbollah with severe military escalations, inflicting still more pain on their embattled country. Previous On Our Radar Editions On Our Radar 2025 On Our Radar 2024 On Our Radar 2023 On Our Radar 2022

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