Five-year forecast: AI will resolve 60% of supply chain disruptions without humans

By 2031, 60% of supply chain disruptions will be resolved without human intervention, as artificial intelligence (AI) enables increasingly autonomous supply chains, according to Gartner, Inc. That swift adoption is being driven by the need for AI features such as real-time analytics and automated risk analysis to cope with supply chain disruptions caused by ongoing trade policy uncertainty and intensifying geopolitical conflicts. Without AI, supply chain managers would see an increase in the likelihood of mismanagement, delayed responses, and financial losses, Gartner said. Gartner data shows many chief supply chain officers (CSCOs) are responding by rapidly embracing agentic AI capabilities, or plan to do so within the next two years. A Gartner survey of 509 supply chain leaders from October 2025 indicated “changes in ways of working driven by advancements in AI and agentic AI” will be the most influential driver of future supply chain performance over the next two years.

“As more frequent and complex disruptions continue to test response capacity, organizations are moving toward AI that can sense and act in real time to improve the consistency and speed of decisions,” Julia von Massow, Director Analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain practice, said in a release. “CSCOs should focus on expanding autonomy in a controlled manner by starting with low-risk decisions and building the data and governance needed to grow automation capabilities responsibly in the coming years.”

For the time being, current technological immaturity and data availability issues should restrict full AI automation to low-risk decisions. For higher-stakes decisions, AI is better used to augment human judgment where full automation may introduce unacceptable risks, the report said. This dual approach allows CSCOs to build the data and governance foundation needed to eventually manage a majority of disruptions without human intervention, as both technology and organizational capabilities expand. Gartner recommends CSCOs take the following actions to progress towards an AI-enabled supply chain that can manage disruptions without the need for human intervention:

Own responsibility for supporting an enterprise-wide AI strategy and roadmap that aligns technology investments with objectives including disruption management and decision automation. Prioritize investments in data quality and governance so autonomous supply chain technologies can access accurate, timely, and complete supply chain information, supporting trusted decisions aligned to potential regulatory guidelines when managing disruptions. Budget ongoing resources to assess the emotional and performance-based impact of increasing autonomy on existing supply chain roles, treating change management as a core workstream. Develop contingency plans for failures in autonomous decisions, including protocols for rapid human intervention and continuous improvement based on incident analysis, supported by governance and performance management frameworks.