The "Squad" left faces complete wipeout in Illinois Democratic primaries

The left suffered a virtually total collapse in the Illinois Democratic congressional primaries on Tuesday night — even in races where the AIPAC-backed candidate lost. Why it matters: It's a bad sign for the dozens of insurgent Democrats running in congressional races across the country, both in open seats and as primary rivals to older or more establishment-oriented incumbents.

It's great news for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), who is most popular among the moderate and mainstream liberal wings of his party. Most of the Democratic House candidates who have refused to commit to supporting Jeffries for leader or speaker are leftist insurgents.

Driving the news: Kat Abughazaleh, a left-wing influencer and journalist backed by Justice Democrats and the Sunrise Movement, lost to Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss in the closely watched race in Illinois' 9th district.

Biss and Abughazaleh were both opposed by AIPAC, whose proxy Elect Chicago Women spent millions in support of pro-Israel state Sen. Laura Fine, who came in third. But AIPAC pivoted in the final week of the campaign to focusing its fire on the more pro-Palestinian Abughazaleh than Biss, who was backed by the Congressional Progressive Caucus and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). Another AIPAC affiliate, Chicago Progressive Partnership, ran ads painting Abughazaleh as a closet Republican and boosting a lower tier leftist in the race, Bushra Amiwala.

A similar story played out in the 8th district, where progressive Junaid Ahmed lost to moderate former Rep. Melissa Bean (D-Ill.), the pick of both AIPAC and crypto and AI-affiliated PACs.

Unlike Abughazaleh, however, Ahmed was supported by both the CPC and Warren, as well as Justice Democrats, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and a local Democratic Socialists of America chapter.

Zoom out: In Illinois' 2nd district, progressive state Sen. Robert Peters came in a distant third behind AIPAC-backed Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller and former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr.

And in the 7th district, CPC-backed labor leader Anthony Driver Jr. and progressive organizer Kina Collins finished third and fourth. The race was won by state Rep. La Shawn Ford, who edged out AIPAC-backed Chicago Treasurer Melissa Conyears Ervin.

What they're saying: "Life looks pretty good," AIPAC said in a post on X, boasting that Illinois voters "rejected ... far-left, would-be Squad members who centered their campaigns on attacking Israel."

On the 9th district, they said in another post: "While disappointed Laura Fine didn't prevail, the pro-Israel community is proud to have helped defeat would-be Squad members Kat Abughazaleh and Bushra Amiwala."

The other side: Left-wing groups focused on the money spent by AIPAC and AI and crypto affiliated PACs, also noting that many of the ads those groups ran touted the more moderate candidates as progressive fighters while trying to undermine the left-wing bona fides of their leftist rivals.

"It took AIPAC, AI, and Crypto coming together to spend millions whitewashing Melissa Bean's right-wing record in Congress to elect a former Congresswoman," Justice Democrats Executive Director Alexandra Rojas said in a statement on the result in the 8th district. Rojas said the result in the 9th district "takes nothing away from the trailblazing campaign Kat ran" and "is a massive loss for AIPAC as they lose more and more influence within the Democratic Party." "No amount of shell PACs or covert funding can hide their toxicity from Democratic voters," she said. A Justice Democrats spokesperson also stressed that the group spent very little in these races, while AIPAC's spending was, in several cases, combined with spending by AI and crypto PACs.