New study shows global democracy hasn’t been this bad since 1978. Australia should be worried

The health of global democracy is regressing to Cold War-era levels. For the average global citizen, democracy is now back where it was in 1978, according to new research assessing more than 200 countries. The 10th edition of the V-Dem report, released today, shows the level of democracy for the average citizen in Western Europe and North America is at its lowest level in more than 50 years, primarily because the United States is becoming more autocratic. In fact, under the metrics used in this report, the US is no longer considered a liberal democracy. It’s instead been demoted to an “electoral democracy”. So as other countries backslide, how does Australia stack up?

How do you measure democracy? The report has been compiled by researchers at the University of Gothenburg’s V-Dem Institute in Sweden. But let’s step back for a moment and understand what we mean by democracy. In an era in which even China claims to be a democracy, the term is more contested than ever. V-Dem stands for Varieties of Democracy, acknowledging the many models of democracy and the need to measure how well the will of the people is represented and protected by a nation’s leadership.

V-Dem combines political science with five democracy-defining principles: electoral, liberal, deliberative, participatory and egalitarian. These principles are measured across more than 600 different attributes annually by around 4,200 scholars and other country experts for 202 countries and territories from 1789 onwards. The result is the world’s largest dataset of democracies, with more than 32 million data points. In the report, countries are classified as liberal democracies, electoral democracies, electoral autocracies or closed autocracies. The global picture The report shows just 7% of the world’s population live in liberal democracies. These are countries with free and fair multiparty elections and freedom of expression and association. They also have judicial and legislative constraints on the executive, along with protection of civil liberties and equality before the law. Australians are among the lucky few. By contrast, 74% of the world’s population, or six billion people, now live under autocracies: a form of government where power is concentrated in the hands of one person. This includes Indonesia, Vietnam, Singapore, India and China.

The remaining 19% live in a democratic shell in which multiparty elections are still free and fair, but key checks and balances are severely compromised. In these places, there are also limited protections for civil liberties and equality before the law. Australia’s closest allies are affected by democratic backsliding, also called autocratisation. This includes the aforementioned US, the United Kingdom, Canada and several member states in the European Union. The report also ranks countries using a measure called the liberal democracy index. The five countries with the best scores are Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Switzerland and Estonia. Where does Australia sit? Australia is ranked 12th best overall democracy. This position is unchanged from previous years. There is no hard evidence showing whether Australia’s success can be attributed to compulsory and preferential voting, as is often argued. It could just as well be the high level of tertiary education of women or the unique composition of the Senate that keeps strongmen out of office. Either way, remaining in the same rank amid global democratic backsliding is no cause for celebration. Australia is also gradually declining, just not faster or slower than other countries. It should act as a warning sign that when sorted by egalitarianism, Australia ranks just 26th. The gap between the haves and the have-nots has been growing wider for decades. Trust in major parties has been declining. Despite compulsory voting, the primary vote for the two main parties has been steadily dropping, creating space for new forces to gain power. There’s much Australia can learn from higher-ranked countries, especially on addressing inequality. A third wave of autocracies The past 25 years of autocratisation are described as the third wave in modern history. While the first two waves were known for military coups and election fraud, this third wave is unique for its stealth mode. It hides behind a legal facade, and is slowly chipping away at democratic institutions. The same authors who coined the term “third wave autocratisation” in 2019 and did not see reason for panic back then are now sounding the alarm bells. In this light, it’s worth remembering what makes democracy so good in the first place. Is democracy the worst form of government – apart from all the others? We asked 5 experts

The data show that democratisation leads to higher, sustained GDP (gross domestic product) per capita growth, better social protection, better health outcomes, lower infant mortality, greater access to safe water and electricity, and greater gender equality. Also, researchers note democracies “do not wage wars against each other and see much lower risks of conflict and instability than autocracies. Autocratisation leads to more wars and conflicts.” But the data also show democracy has one major Achilles heel: it does not, in general, lead to lower levels of economic inequality. Research demonstrates this inequality harms the mental and physical health of citizens in a society and undermines overall social cohesion. It enhances the perception that society is breaking down and that only a strong leader can restore order (even when that leader wants to challenge democratic values). Notably, most recent strongman leaders were first elected in open and fair elections before they began eroding the very democratic institutions that brought them to power, so as to remain in power. So managing and actively caring for democracy and democratic values is key to maintaining them. As much of the world goes backwards, Australia has work to do to not just to keep the liberal democracy we have, but to improve it.

I receive a University of Technology Sydney scholarship stipend which is funded by the Australian Research Council.