Spain-US rift: Pedro Sánchez’ defiance of Trump is dictated by domestic politics – but it’s also a litmus test for Europe

A protester's sign reading ‘For peace and justice. No to war’ in Spanish, at a demonstration in Logroño on March 12, 2026. Www.mariomartija.es/Shutterstock The war in Iran has yet again exposed the tensions between Spain’s Pedro Sánchez and Donald Trump. The two leaders have clashed repeatedly over the last year, including over Spain’s ongoing opposition to Israel’s conduct in Gaza, its refusal to raise Nato spending above 2% of GDP, and now its refusal to support the US war in Iran. In late February, Spain barred the US from using its joint military bases in Rota and Morón for operations linked to the Iran war. As a result, an incensed Trump stated “We’re going to cut off all trade with Spain. We don’t want anything to do with Spain.” Could the US cut off trade with Spain? Here’s what international law says

Sánchez has since doubled down on his opposition in a nationally televised address, where he emphatically stated the Spanish government’s position: “No a la guerra”, no to war. On social media he also asserted: “NO to violations of international law” and “NO to the illusion that we can solve the world’s problems with bombs.” Such pointed defiance of the Trump administration could carry political risks for Sánchez. Indeed, reactions to the war from other European states have been a lot more muted. Why, then, has Sánchez adopted such an unusually confrontational stance? The clash is being presented as a question of geopolitics or international law, but it is better understood as domestic politics shaping foreign policy. Spain’s historical anti-war political culture, the dynamics of Sánchez’s left-leaning governing coalition, and electoral incentives at home all help account for Madrid’s unusually firm position. The shadow of Iraq In his recent address, Sánchez made a specific reference to the 2003 war in Iraq: “Twenty-three years ago, another US Administration dragged us into a war in the Middle East,” he said. “A war which, in theory, was said at the time to be waged to eliminate Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction, to bring democracy, and to guarantee global security but… it unleashed the greatest wave of insecurity that our continent had suffered since the fall of the Berlin Wall.” In 2003, Spanish Prime Minister José María Aznar joined the US-led coalition to topple Saddam Hussein. The decision triggered massive protests across the country and partly led to Aznar’s defeat in the 2004 elections. His opponent, the Socialist Party’s José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, campaigned on a promise to withdraw troops from Iraq, which he fulfilled immediately after taking office. The Iraq war fundamentally shaped Spanish public attitudes toward military intervention in the Middle East, and its legacy explains Sánchez’s instinct to distance Spain from the Iran war. His stance is not only ideological – it reflects the memory of how politically damaging it can be for a Spanish government to align itself with US interventions. Coalition politics and early electoral signals Sánchez’ position on the war in Iran can also be analysed in the light of current political developments at home. Sánchez governs with support from left-wing parties strongly opposed to US military intervention. Backing Washington, or even facilitating the war through US bases, could risk destabilising that coalition. But the political calculation may go even further. Sánchez has earned a reputation for repeatedly surviving political crises. Despite declining poll numbers and ongoing scandals within his party and inner circle, he appears to be betting that Trump’s deep unpopularity in Spain will ultimately work to his advantage, particularly among his left-leaning base. Recent electoral results suggest the strategy may be resonating with voters. In much anticipated regional elections in Castilla y León held on Sunday, Sánchez’ Socialist Party (PSOE) increased its representation, gaining two additional seats despite polls suggesting the party might lose significant ground. While one election cannot determine national trends, the result offers an early indication that a firm anti-war stance may not carry the domestic political costs critics predicted. If anything, it may have reinforced Sánchez’s appeal across party lines among voters sceptical of military escalation, critical of Donald Trump, and supportive of a more independent European foreign policy. If Sánchez is proven right, it would also vindicate the Spanish government’s stance on Nato. In June 2025, Spain refused to raise defence spending toward Trump’s proposed 5% Nato target, prompting harsh criticism from the US president. The dispute reflects a broader political reality: higher defence spending is unpopular among the Spanish electorate. Seen in this context, the Iran war confrontation is part of a longer pattern in which domestic political considerations shape Spain’s position within the transatlantic alliance. NATO has deep divisions – but why is Spain its most openly critical member?

Domestic pressures across Europe Spain’s stance may appear unusually confrontational, but Europe’s response to the Iran war has been far from unified. Much of the variation reflects different domestic political pressures facing European leaders. In Germany, Chancellor Friedrich Merz initially avoided direct criticism of the US strikes and has generally emphasised transatlantic unity. Nevertheless, he has warned against a prolonged conflict and stressed that Germany “is not a party to this war” and does not want to become one, highlighting concerns about economic disruption and regional instability. The UK has taken a similarly careful stance. Prime Minister Keir Starmer insisted on clarity about US objectives and legal justification before committing military support, emphasising diplomacy and maritime security rather than direct involvement in the conflict. Italy’s Giorgia Meloni has raised concerns about the legality of the war, but avoided outright condemnation of Washington. Her government has emphasised respect for existing agreements governing US military bases rather than blocking their use outright, reflecting both Italy’s strong security ties with the United States and Meloni’s own political alignment with transatlantic conservatives. The overall picture is of a fragmented European response. Across the continent, governments are balancing their own domestic political constraints against broader international strategic calculations. A litmus test for Europe Spain’s response to the Iran war may offer the clearest example yet of how domestic politics is shaping Europe’s reaction to the conflict. Time will tell whether Sánchez’s stance proves politically sustainable at home, and whether it makes Spain the champion of a more assertive European approach toward Washington or just an outlier. If the strategy proves successful, it could encourage other European leaders to push back against Washington. If it backfires, however, Europe’s cautious response will likely become more entrenched. Either way, the episode illustrates a broader reality of international relations. Foreign policy decisions may be presented as matters of international law or principle, but in democratic systems they are often shaped first and foremost by the pressures of politics at home.

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Waya Quiviger no recibe salario, ni ejerce labores de consultoría, ni posee acciones, ni recibe financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y ha declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado.