The Mojtaba mystery: CIA searches for signs of Iran's new leader

The CIA, Mossad and other intelligence agencies around the world were watching during Nowruz on Friday to see whether Iran's new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei would follow his father's tradition and give a new year's address. The intrigue: When the holiday passed with only a written statement from Mojtaba, the mystery around his physical condition, whereabouts and role in Iran's war effort deepened.

It's hardly surprising that Mojtaba has remained in the shadows. Since killing his father, Israel has made clear Mojtaba is now at the top of its target list. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has also claimed Mojtaba was "wounded and likely disfigured" in the strike that killed his father. But after three weeks without even a prerecorded video statement, Mojtaba's silence is growing louder.

The U.S. and Israel have intelligence that suggests Mojtaba remains alive — for example, evidence of Iranian officials trying to schedule in-person meetings with him (unsuccessfully, due to security concerns).

The mystery around Mojtaba has come up during several of President Trump's intelligence briefings. Trump's national security team is still working to assess who is actually in charge in Tehran, a U.S. official said. "We have no evidence that he is really the one giving orders," a senior Israeli official told Axios of Mojtaba. "It's beyond weird. We don't think the Iranians would have gone through all this trouble to choose a dead guy as the supreme leader, but at the same time, we have no proof that he is taking the helm," a U.S. official said.

Catch up quick: Mojtaba was announced as supreme leader on March 9 after his fellow hardliners rallied behind him to succeed his father.

His public response was limited to a written statement on Telegram three days later, intensifying the speculation about how badly he was wounded during Israel's strike on his father's residence. U.S. and Israeli intelligence saw security chief Ali Larijani as Iran's de facto leader, until Israel assassinated Larijani last Tuesday. "Their leaders are all gone. The next set of leaders are all gone. And the next set of leaders are mostly gone. And now, nobody wants to be leader over there anymore. We are having a hard time. We want to talk to them but there is nobody to talk to. You know what, we like it that way," Trump said on Friday. Israeli officials claim Iran's top leaders are all operating like wanted people — moving between safe houses and avoiding digital communications.

Driving the news: Mojtaba's Telegram channel published a written message for Nowruz calling for unity, along with several photos of the new supreme leader.

A U.S. official said the CIA was trying to determine whether the photos were recent. The official noted that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian released a video message for Nowruz, despite threats to his own safety. "We would have expected to see Mojtaba too in some form. He didn't take advantage of the opportunity and tradition," the U.S. official added. "It's a big red flag."

Reality check: Raz Zimmt, director of the Iran Program at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, noted that there is no evidence Mojtaba is not functioning, even if his injury and security concerns make it difficult to fully exercise his authority.

"Under the current exceptional circumstances, one should not expect him to appear in public, and it is possible that his injury does not even allow him to release a recorded video in order not to expose to the public the severity of his condition," Zimmt said.

Behind the scenes: CIA Director John Ratcliffe and Defense Intelligence Agency Director Gen. James Adams testified in a classified hearing on Thursday before the House Intelligence Committee that the Iranian regime was experiencing a deep command and control crisis, but there was no sign of imminent collapse, according to three sources with knowledge.

Two senior Israeli officials claimed the Larijani assassination expanded the power vacuum, and that it was being filled mainly by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Mojtaba's rise was enabled by his own close ties to the IRGC, which has vast influence on Iran's economy, politics and security and which the Israeli officials say is now effectively running the country. "The IRGC are taking over Iran and they are crazy," a senior Arab official told Axios. "They are highly ideological and are ready to die and meet Khamenei Senior."

What to watch: Ratcliffe and Adams stressed during the hearing that it was too early to know whether the regime can survive the war and the loss of so many senior leaders.

Israel has made clear that laying the groundwork for regime change is one of its war aims. We think that the more we increase the external pressure on them, it will increase the internal pressure. The more that happens the bigger the chances are that the regime breaks down," a senior Israeli official said. Some critics of the war have argued that wiping out the old guard is only paving the way for a more hardline leaders, like Mojtaba himself.