Iran’s escalation dominance

THE ongoing hostilities in the Israel-US war on Iran — with Tehran raining missiles and drones on the Zionist apartheid state and Washington’s interests in the region in retaliation for attacks on Iran’s military sites and infrastructure, including energy assets, and the mass murder of its leaders and schoolgirls — is one side of the equation. The other side consists of the fog generated by disinformation, claims, denials and spin. The latest is the attack on the infrastructure of Iran’s South Pars gas fields by Israel. Within hours, Iran retaliated with an attack on the same North Dome gas facilities in Qatar (the gas fields straddle the waters of the two states and are said to be the largest gas reservoir in the world). Spread over some 9,700 square kilometres, they are said to meet 20 per cent of the global gas demand and 80pc of Asia’s needs. Iran also hit other Gulf energy sites. In a social media post, US President Donald Trump claimed that the US had no prior knowledge of Israel’s attack on the gas infrastructure, while saying (in capital letters) that Israel would not attack energy infrastructure anymore. He went on to threaten Iran with massive US retaliation if it continued to attack energy targets in the Gulf. A little later, Israeli ‘sources’ said the US had approved the attack plan. Trump is said to have changed his tune after his Qatari allies protested in a phone call. The region seems dangerously poised after the Gulf nations — home to US military bases and about 50,000 troops — that say they oppose the war, threatened retaliation if they continue to come under attack from Iran. If the Gulf states actively join the war, will Saudi Arabia invoke its defence pact with Pakistan, is a question that many will be asking as they wonder about the ramifications of such an event. The Israeli ambassador to India this week called Pakistan a rogue state with a nuclear weapon. Benjamin Netan­yahu and Narendra Modi are avowed allies. What will be our vulnerabilities external and internal? If the Arab states attack Iran, there will be celebrations in Tel Aviv as the Zionist dream would have come true. If the Gulf states attack Iran, there will be celebrations in Tel Aviv as the Zionist dream would have come true to have the region at war with itself and in chaos, while Israel gains a free hand to continue to expand its occupation of the West Bank and its murderous campaign in Gaza, despite the ‘ceasefire’. The 12-day war launched by Israel on Iran last year came amidst talks between Iran and the US. Trump claimed to have ‘obliterated’ Iran’s nuclear programme using bunker buster bombs and announced a ceasefire. Another round of talks began this year, during which both the Omani foreign minister-mediator and the British interlocutor said Iran had offered an ‘unprecedented deal’. But the US went ahead and agreed with the extremist Zionist state to launch a war on Iran. One source said that American interlocutors Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were acting as ‘Israel’s agents’. This war too began with decapitation strikes during which Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several top military figures, including the defence minister, were killed.

Trump, as usual, was quick to claim victory, saying that Iran’s military, including its missile/ drone production and launch sites had been wiped out and also its (practically non-existent) air force and navy and whatever else he could think of. The only rebuttal Iran offered was to continue to target US eyes and ears (key radars including one facility said to be worth over $1billion) in the region with drones and missiles. It also hit Israel. Its succession planning and decentralisation of military commands delivered unequivocally with the government remaining intact and Iran retaining the capability to hit back. Tough censorship in Israel is not allowing a proper picture of its losses. Hezbollah, the Iran-allied Lebanese group that was supposed to be dead after the ‘pagers’ assault, and the killing of its leader Hassan Nasrallah, not only returned to life but seemed to have added considerable range to its missiles, which are now hitting targets not just in the border areas but as far as 200 kilometres inside Israel. Its attacks on Israeli occupation forces in south Lebanon are lethal. Israel is responding with the indiscriminate bombing of civilian areas and threatening invasion. The Strait of Hormuz is still closed to all traffic but what Iran allows through. Oil and gas prices are rising sharply — in fact, gas prices were pushed up 20-25pc in a day in London! If the war continues, gas shortages will impact the production of fertiliser and eventually global food supplies. Countries like Pakistan are already reeling from the impact of the war as rising fuel prices threaten to unleash an inflationary spike. As mayhem is unleashed in the markets, with dwindling energy supplies from South Asia to East Asia pushing up prices dramatically, a US Marines expeditionary force is set to arrive in the Gulf by next Wednesday. However, with no more than 2,500 Marines, it is not clear whether the US will attempt to land on the heavily fortified Qeshm Island from where Iran controls the narrowest part of the Hormuz. Or Kharg Island from where Iran exports 90pc of its oil. Does the US have the appetite for taking losses which, many experts believe, are inevitable in a bloody ground fight? Retired Col Lawrence Wilkerson, former chief of staff to Gen Colin Powell, fears that Iran is holding back the use of its ‘Mach 4/5’ Khorramshehr hypersonic missiles with multiple warheads (not cluster munitions), which could be used to ‘sink’ US vessels including aircraft carriers. “We have nothing to stop those with,” he warned in a podcast. In such an event, what weapons will the leaders of a demoralised force use? Energy price hikes and an unpopular war will spell disaster for Trump-supporting members of Congress in the November elections. If he loses the House majority, impeachment will follow. Will that be a restraining factor on Trump? Will he be able to find an exit ramp? The writer is a former editor of Dawn. abbas.nasir@hotmail.com Published in Dawn, March 20th, 2026