Axios-Ipsos poll: Americans distrust Trump vaccine policies

Data: Axios/Ipsos; Note: Margin of error is ±2.9 percentage points; Chart: Axios Visuals Just 6 in 10 Americans now trust the government's vaccination recommendations for children, according to the Axios-Ipsos American Health Index, reflecting the dramatic erosion of public trust during the tenure of Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

At the same time, nearly 1 in 3 Americans say they personally identify with Kennedy's "Make America Healthy Again" movement.

The big picture: Vaccines are becoming a third rail in administration efforts to overhaul America's public health system before the midterm elections, to the consternation of some of Kennedy's most ardent supporters.

Trust in the current childhood vaccination schedule — which was dramatically overhauled in January to more closely align with Denmark's — now stands at 60%, down from 71% when we asked the question last June. On Monday, a federal judge blocked Kennedy from carrying out key vaccine policy changes, including the recommendations for kids.

Zoom in: The poll shows Americans overwhelmingly trust pediatricians over the administration for medical advice.

35% said they place more confidence in the American Academy of Pediatrics while 8% said they have more confidence in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The rest said they have equal confidence in both, don't know, or don't have confidence in either. 70% have little or no trust in health information from Kennedy, which, for context, is actually marginally better than respondents' mistrust in President Trump or congressional Republicans or Democrats. 68% also said they have little or no trust in health information from surgeon general nominee Casey Means, compared with 28% who have a great deal or fair amount of trust.

Between the lines: Declining trust in the federal government is largely fueled by Democrats who say policies are being driven by Trump appointees rather than career scientists. But trust also has slid among independents. The other side: Other parts of Kennedy's agenda aimed at cleaning up the food supply and addressing chronic diseases have broader support.

Nearly 4 in 10 Americans see no risk in drinking raw milk, a past Kennedy focus that's become a rallying point for some wellness influencers. Measles outbreaks, which Kennedy initially downplayed, are not viewed as a broad public health threat by most Americans; 36% say communicable disease outbreaks are a large or moderate risk to their well-being.

What they're saying: Americans are starting to notice big health policy shifts under Trump but feel vague about many of the details, leaving "a lot of room for gray" in terms of attitudes and trust, said Mallory Newall, Ipsos vice president for U.S. public affairs.

That makes party affiliation more likely to influence trust. "As public health has become increasingly politicized, the American public is becoming more distrusting and frankly more uncertain about what the best course of action is for their health and well-being," Newall said. In terms of Monday's ruling freezing the vaccine policy changes, Newall added: "Some people will probably celebrate the ruling. I think in general, questions around vaccines and public health recommendations are likely to continue to be used as political pawns in the near term."

What we're watching: Americans are more unified in their dissatisfaction with the health care system overall and anxiety over rising medical costs.

By nearly 7-to-1, respondents said the government should spend more tax dollars to lower Americans' health care costs. The same proportion believes American children are overmedicated, and 8 in 10 say drug companies often make misleading claims about their products. A strong majority nevertheless supports prescription drug manufacturers selling their own treatments directly to patients if it reduces costs. Almost 7 in 10 are concerned about higher costs of health insurance and say their household finances would be negatively impacted by a 10% increase.

Skepticism about health industries also extends to the internet and wellness influencers. Just 1 in 4 said they learned a lot about health and wellness from influencers on social media.

83% agree with the notion that most health and wellness information online is about making money rather than helping people.

Methodology: This Axios/Ipsos Poll was conducted March 6-9, 2026, by Ipsos' KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a nationally representative probability sample of 1,225 general population adults age 18 or older.

The margin of sampling error is +/-2.9 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults.