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Who profits from prediction markets?
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Updated 3 hours ago
First seen March 17, 2026 21:28:35Stay on top of this story
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Quick Summary
It seems execution beats foresight: Retail traders correctly forecast asset price direction yet lose money. Using 222 million prediction market trades with observable terminal payoffs, we decompose returns into a directional component (did the trader pick the right side?) and an execution component (did the trader get a favorable price?). Traders with above-random accuracy earn […] The post Who profits from prediction markets? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.