Oil reserves last for weeks. Solar panels last for decades

Oil depot tanks in Iran hit by US-Israeli strikes. Kaveh Kazemi / Getty Images Oil and gas prices are shooting up as war in the Middle East cuts down the supply of fossil fuels available, in what has been described as “the largest supply disruption in the history of oil markets”. There have been several major upheavals in energy markets since 2020, including the COVID pandemic, Russia’s ongoing war on Ukraine, and US President Donald Trump’s trade and tariff war with much of the world. What now? The closest historical comparison may be to the oil shock of the 1970s, which prompted significant moves by governments around the world to reduce the demand for fossil fuels. This time around, things are different: relatively cheap, widely available renewable energy technology means not only governments but also companies and individuals can reduce their own reliance on fossil fuels, permanently. The traditional case for renewables Compared to what we get from fossil fuels, renewable energy is clean, cheap and reliable. Solar and wind can provide virtually unlimited energy without greenhouse emissions. They also eliminate smog, strip mining, gas fracking, oil spills and oil-related warfare – not to mention avoiding the radioactive waste, accidents and weapons proliferation that go hand in hand with nuclear power. Renewables have low requirements for raw materials, land and water. Waste from solar farms is about 1,000 times smaller than the avoided carbon dioxide from burning equivalent fossil fuels. These technologies also come out ahead on price. Solar and wind have provided virtually all new power plant capacity in Australia over the past decade. At a global level, solar and wind are being installed five times faster than everything else combined. This is compelling market-based evidence of their low cost. The reliability test also favours renewables. In recent years, Australia’s shaky fleet of ageing coal power stations has become a substantial threat to grid stability. In contrast, solar and wind are very predictable, because thousands of collectors spread over a million square kilometres greatly reduces the impact of collector malfunctions and local weather.

Energy from solar and wind can be stored and released on demand via batteries and pumped hydro projects such as Snowy 2.0. Consumer electric vehicles are also taking off, and heavy transport is not far behind. In China, electric truck sales have reached parity with diesel trucks. In Australia, major companies such as Fortescue are on track to drastically cut their emissions. The spike in the price of gas following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 had a major effect on Australian energy prices because the companies exporting Australian gas charged Australian consumers world parity prices. However, apart from 2022, Australian electricity wholesale market price is unchanged over the past decade, while the renewables fraction increased from 17% to 42%. Renewables make us more resilient If we “electrify everything” – transport, heating and industry – clean electricity can replace most gas heating and imports of petroleum products (which cost Australia A$53 billion in 2025). This would double Australia’s electricity demand and reduce greenhouse emissions by three quarters. At the domestic level, an all-electric home with solar panels can have no bill for gas or petrol, and a low bill for electricity. Energy storage is available via hot water tanks, electric vehicles and home batteries. Energy from rooftop solar works out costing around 5 cents per kilowatt-hour, a fraction of the retail price.

If grid power fails or fossil fuel prices soar, solar-powered homeowners can carry on indefinitely with nearly normal house operation. Once an international disruption of oil and gas supply lasts for a month or so, it becomes a big problem for Australia as reserves are depleted and prices spike. In contrast, solar panels, wind turbines, transmission, batteries, pumped hydro, electric vehicles, electric heat pumps and electric furnaces last for decades – so we have much more time to see any disruption coming and work around it And in a darker possibility, a decentralised energy system based on thousands of solar and wind farms and millions of solar rooftops would be far more resilient against military attacks than a few coal and nuclear power stations. War, trade war and pandemics Nobody knows the ramifications of the latest war in the Middle East. In the short term, prices for oil and gas have risen sharply. The fundamental difference this time round is that individuals, companies and countries have remarkably cheap clean energy alternatives available. Australia is rapidly decarbonising its electricity grid by replacing coal and gas with solar and wind. The government target is 82% renewable electricity by 2030. Gas heating is being actively discouraged in favour of electric heat pumps, and electric cars and trucks are being encouraged. Alongside lower emissions, lower cost and greater reliability, a rapid transition to clean energy also means greater resilience in an unpredictable future. In the long run, the most important outcome of the current wars might be an acceleration of the world’s move away from fossil fuels.

Andrew Blakers receives funding from DFAT and ARENA.