BUSINESSglobal
Recession Probabilities: All around 30%-35%
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Updated 2 hours ago
First seen March 20, 2026 00:25:48Stay on top of this story
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Quick Summary
From WSJ, recession within the next 12 months: Figure 1: Mean probability of recession within the next 12 months, WSJ March survey, % (blue square). NBER defined peak to trough recession dates shaded gray. WSJ survey, NBER. Median probability is 30% (Hollenhurst, Clark/Citigroup). The highest probability is 85%, lowest is 1% (unless it’s a typo…). […]